The Lab
History, put under pressure.
Schedule luck, all-play truth, ELO, lineup efficiency, consistency, and a transparent Dynasty Rating built from the full archive.
Composite view
The dynasty board
A 100-point blend of titles, winning, playoff frequency, longevity, and current ELO.
Skill vs luck
Performance without the schedule alibi
Skill ranks weekly scoring strength through All-Play. Luck measures actual wins above or below those weekly expectations.
Skill estimates how strongly a manager performed independent of the opponents they happened to face. It is descriptive, not a forecast.
100.0
Skill
97-63-1
Actual record
94.8-66.2
Expected record
+2.7 wins
Neutral
58.9%
All-Play
67.4%
Lineup efficiency
Metric leaders
Different ways to dominate
Transparent by design
How the numbers work
All-Play compares every team score with every other team score in the same regular-season week.
Skill is the 0–100 percentile rank of All-Play win percentage for the selected career or season cohort; All-Play record, points per game, and lineup efficiency remain visible beneath it.
Expected wins sums each weekly All-Play win share; Luck is actual win equivalents (a tie counts as half a win) minus expected wins.
Luck labels use the win difference normalized to a 13-game season, so career length does not inflate the label.
ELO begins at 1500 and updates chronologically with a K-factor of 24.
Lineup efficiency is positive starter output divided by positive total roster output from weekly snapshots.
For shared teams, ESPN's primary owner receives indivisible statistical attribution for wins, losses, points, championships, rivalries, Skill vs Luck, Draft DNA, Record Book, and Lab metrics. Co-owners retain season and franchise participation without duplicating team results or league totals.
Draft DNA uses completed archive picks only. Keeper slots are counted but excluded from positional tendency rates; unresolved player positions are labeled rather than inferred.
ESPN team defenses are resolved only when the recurring negative source ID matches the documented -(16000 + pro team ID) convention; unresolved identities remain unavailable and do not create player profile pages.
Single-team postseason schedule rows without an opponent are playoff byes, not head-to-head games, and are excluded from game and rivalry totals.
Draft descriptors use fixed evidence thresholds: 50% for early RB/WR identity, Round 5 or earlier for aggressive QB/TE labels, Round 8+ for late QB, Round 9+ for late TE, and at least three repeated players plus an 8% repeat rate for loyalty.
Dynasty Rating blends championships, win rate, playoff appearances, longevity, and current ELO on a 100-point scale.